Extrapolative Modeling of International Trade using ARIMA Model: A Performance Comparison between India and China during COVID-19

A reshaping of the global supply chain is on cards with companies searching for alternative choices, current instability in China and some countries planning to pull their businesses out China. India has already earned reputation being a responsible trustworthy nation efficient participatory governance these times crisis. In light this scenery, study contrasts success Indian Chinese foreign trade rest world.The merchandise commercial service exports imports from both world were obtained official WTO website compare output (deviation actual projected during COVID-19) world. The present research employs models ARIMA using three-step model creation process (i.e. recognition, estimation diagnostic check). For identification appropriate ADF, PP Test, KPSS test Auto-correlation function partial auto-correlation used, approximate developed based defined p, d, q order finally Box- Ljung was carried out. results show that favorable trading conditions while stronger spot case services.